Growth in an economy is due to an increase in all three of productivity, labour and capital inputs. Its not just the scale of the last two that matter, but also the mobility.
A recession is usually the result of increased input costs (e.g. energy costs) or reduced capital mobility (e.g. the GFC).
The last few decades in the US (and to a lesser degree elsewhere in the West) has seen a sharp rise in wealth disparities across the population, often looked at in terms of, for example, the percentage of wealth that the top 1% of American’s control (it happens to be 40%).
This wealth disparity in the US is a result of two historical factors.
First, general wealth had by the 1970’s risen to a level well above subsistence and it was ‘viable’ (i.e. did not necessarily lead to social unrest) to construct a system where the bottom half (or more) of society did not continue to share in a society’s wealth gains.
Second, by the 1970’s political science had developed to a point whereby new media and IT technologies could be usefully used to systematically control political processes in representative democracies. This led to a myriad of laws being enacted and enforced, all with the aim of controlling rises in labour costs, and removing barriers to both labour mobility and capital mobility. Productivity gains were mostly left to market forces.
The actual means by which wealth is accumulated by the ‘controlling’ classes is two-fold. Firstly, there is a wealth transfer from the public purse to private enterprise through expenditure on health, education, defence and other sectors. Second, private-sector capital mobility was unleashed by new technology and the removal of government controls, and only those in the privileged position to participate could benefit – this effect was auto-catalytic.
The US, it seems, has gorged itself on this situation for too long without the necessary checks and balances. Public debt, which has enriched many private citizens, has risen to the extent that the Fed is the primary buyers of US government bonds, using freshly ‘printed’ money. It looks like a Ponzi scheme and the only thing propping it up is the fear that many have as to the outcomes if the US economy is allowed to naturally go through the nasty depression it needs to have.
Economically speaking though, the problem in the US is that a lot of that 40% of wealth controlled by the top 1% is not being effectively used for investment in growth. There are so many derivative layers of finance structures that a good fraction of that wealth is stagnating in electronic databases, or worse still, in tax havens. As the US becomes a riskier proposition one would expect more wealth to surreptitiously ‘leave’ the country.
I see two sources of troubles ahead. One, the US Fed can’t manage the tapering of their addiction to government bonds because this is also a great wealth transfer mechanism, and, two, resource limitations act as a gating factor to growth to such an extent that there is an effective default in the US system. At most risk is social welfare and pension funds which effectively hold much of the US debt.
When this happens there will be serious troubles and give the US perchance for violence and history of civil war, it will be bloody.